In October, the electric vehicles of the three Japanese
giants Toyota, Honda, and Nissan—bZ4X, e:N series (Dongfeng Honda e:NS1, GAC
Honda e:NP1), and Aria finally assembled in the Chinese market.
These cars have similar status and significance. Although
they are not their first pure electric products, they are all important ones in
history.
bZ4X is the pioneering work of Toyota's bZ pure electric
exclusive series, the e:N series is the first model of Honda pure electric
brand e:N, and Aria is the flagship electric product that integrates Nissan's
latest electrification technology.
In a sense, these products are the answers given by
Toyota, Honda, and Nissan in the electrification exam, and the quality of the
products directly reflects their learning outcomes.
But as a result, they did not do well on this test.
The Honda e:N series, which was launched in April, has
maintained three-digit monthly sales since its launch. In order to attract
consumers, promotions such as “10,000 to 30,000” and “2,000 to 22,000” were
launched to try to exchange price for volume. Toyota's bZ4X and Nissan's Ariel
have just been scolded by the market, especially the starting price of Ariel's
as high as 272,800 yuan, which makes consumers call "cut leeks".
It has been more than 10 years since the new energy
transformation of the automobile industry started. New car-making forces such
as Tesla and Wei Xiaoli are the protagonists of this round of change. The fuel
car companies are a few steps slower, but they are also catching up. Volkswagen
and BBA both put down their posture and started to get electrocuted, but the
Japanese car, the other dominant player in the fuel era, has always had a weak
sense of existence.
Previously, everyone could find many reasons for the
stalling of new energy in Japanese car companies, such as the fact that they
have not fully exerted their power, and the earlier oil-to-electricity products
were just testing the water, etc. A more representative pure electric product
came to the market, and the last fig leaf for the electrification
transformation of Japanese cars was also torn off.
How can a Japanese brand that has conquered countless
consumers not be able to handle electric cars?
Japanese electric vehicles can't learn new forces
According to the industry's expectations for the
electrification transformation of fuel brands, bZ4X, e:N series, and Aria
actually meet the basic requirements.
For example, they all use a real pure electric platform
instead of an oil-to-electric model. The battery life is not outstanding, but
it basically meets the travel needs. The assisted driving system can also be
found on these cars. These Japanese cars have assembled the key elements of
current smart electric vehicles, but why are they still not selling well?
Some say it's too expensive. Expensive indeed. The
compact SUV Dongfeng Nissan Arrow sells for 272,800-342,800 yuan. At this
price, consumers can buy Tesla Model Y, Wenjie M5/M7, Xiaopeng G9, and Ideal
L7, all of which are A mid-sized or mid-sized SUV, the overall size is larger
and more spacious than the Arielle. The bZ4X and e:N series are relatively
cheap, but there are many other options at the same price point.
However, expensive is only one of the reasons. Not
understanding what the current consumers need is the biggest problem with
Japanese electric vehicles.
New energy vehicles have entered the stage of extreme
involution, and long battery life is the basic operation. Intelligent
overweight and full configuration are the focus of everyone's competition, but
these are not available on bZ4X, e:N series, and Aria.
Let’s talk about intelligence first. All three cars are
equipped with intelligent driving systems, but the achievable functions are
much worse than those of mainstream products. The assisted driving of the bZ4X
stays at the level of lane departure warning and lane tracking assistance. Aria
is better, providing functions such as S-ALC one-button intelligent lane change
assistance, FAP dual-mode intelligent parking, etc., but these are also entry
level.
Tesla, on the other hand, has already introduced the
high-speed NOA navigation assisted driving system to users three years ago, and
Xiaopeng has progressed from high-speed NGP to urban NGP, realizing functions
such as autonomous lane change, overtaking, and entry and exit of highway
ramps.
In terms of intelligent hardware, the bZ4X, e:N series,
and Aria are not equipped with lidars, nor are they even equipped with the 8155
chip that is almost standard for new energy vehicles. Among them, Aria uses
Mobileye's Q4 chip, which is the hardware only equipped with previous-generation
products such as NIO's old 866 models and Ideal ONE.
Of course, not all new energy vehicle products are
attacking assisted driving, and there are many models that are cost-effective.
The price/performance ratio mentioned here does not mean how low the price is,
but whether the product configuration is worth the price.
"The biggest feature of Japanese cars is the balance
of moderation, and the overall cost-effectiveness is very high, but these cars
perform too much." Xiao Lin, owner of Asian Dragon, is a firm fan of
Japanese cars, but after seeing these blockbuster new cars , I have to admit
that Japanese electric vehicles are not even cost-effective. "Other new
forces are standard equipment for all systems, and different versions are only
distinguished in terms of battery life and intelligence, but Japanese electric
vehicles still add and delete ordinary. Configuration, play the set of the era
of fuel vehicles."
Taking GAC Toyota bZ4X as an example, the entry-level
Elite version costing 199,800 yuan has only an 8-inch central control screen,
the steering wheel is made of plastic, the seats are not leather, and there is
no ventilation heating/electric adjustment function; the long-life Elite
version of 229,800 yuan is eligible for optional equipment. A 12.3-inch screen,
heated and electrically adjustable seats, a leather steering wheel, and more;
these are standard on the other three more expensive versions.
In comparison, the 2022 Leaprun C11 of the same level is
standard for the entire system, and different versions only differ in terms of
battery and 100-kilometer acceleration. Similar problems have also appeared in
the Nissan Aria and Honda e:N series.
In terms of cost-effectiveness, Japanese brands have long
been unable to compete with the new car-making forces, and the feedback from
the channel terminals also supports this.
According to the retail data of the Federation of
Passenger Transport Associations, from May to August this year, the monthly
sales of the Honda e:N series in China have been maintained at a triple-digit
level, with only 110 units sold in the least one month. The bZ4X and Ariya,
which have just been launched and have not yet ushered in a full sales month,
have already reduced their prices. Among them, the official price of the GAC
Toyota bZ4X is 20,000 yuan lower than the previous pre-sale price, and the
Dongfeng Nissan Ariya terminal is discounted by 20,000 to 30,000 yuan.
Can't build a tram, what's the problem?
Groups such as Volkswagen and GM initially seemed
powerless when they were transforming into electrification, but now they are
starting to get better. Taking Volkswagen as an example, from June to August
this year, the monthly sales of new energy models of North and South Volkswagen
exceeded 10,000, of which the ID. series were the main ones.
It is also a giant car company. Why do Toyota, Honda, and
Nissan still produce "outdated" products in 2022?
"The reasons why Toyota, Honda, and Nissan can't
make good electric cars are completely different from those of Volkswagen and
BBA. The latter are slow to transform and fail to find the right direction,
while the former simply have no idea whether to make electric cars." From
a car company Industry insider Yu Wen told Shentu that traditional car
companies have money, resources and talents. If they pursue new technologies, they
will not fall behind too much even if the transformation is slow. The reason
why Japanese brands are like this is simply because they are unwilling. They
want to take a few more years of fuel vehicle dividends, but on the other hand,
they are betting on hydrogen energy and hybrid, not pure electricity.”
In fact, Japanese brands started electric vehicles very
early. In 1947, Nissan launched the first electric vehicle TAMA EV. Later, due
to the oil crisis, the Japanese government was determined to accelerate the
development of electric vehicles. In 1993, Honda launched the EV-X at the Tokyo
Motor Show. Mitsubishi's i-MiEV and Nissan's LEAF entered the market in 2009
and 2010, respectively. In 2012, Toyota also cooperated with Tesla to develop
the RAV4. EV.
According to the development of the story, Japanese cars
should now be the leaders of the electric car track, but the reality is that
Japanese car companies have not yet had a best-selling pure electric model.
There are various factors behind this, such as the
immature infrastructure related to electric vehicles in the early years, the
low acceptance of electric vehicles by consumers, the high electricity bills
after the denuclearization of Japan’s electricity, the lack of electrification
in the global market, and the rapid oil crisis. resolve etc. For various
reasons, Japan finally shelved the promotion of electric vehicles. In 2010,
Japan released the "Next Generation Vehicle R&D Strategy", which
shifted from focusing on pure electric vehicles in the past to developing
hydrogen fuel cell vehicles at the same time.
Toyota, in particular, is quite optimistic about the
future of hydrogen energy. In 2014, Toyota released the Mirai, the world's
first mass-produced hydrogen fuel cell sedan, and five years later, it released
the second-generation Mirai model based on the TNGA architecture. However, due
to the high production cost and complex technology of hydrogen fuel cell
vehicles, no phased progress has been made until now. According to public data,
since 2014, Toyota Mirai has sold about 20,000 units globally.
On the one hand, it is engaged in hydrogen fuel, and on
the other hand, Japanese cars accelerate the research and development of hybrid
technology. Honda's i-MMD system, Toyota's THS technology and Nissan's e-POWER
system are all dominant in the hybrid circle. According to public data,
Toyota's global sales of dual-engine hybrid models have exceeded 20 million
units.
In the past few years, Japanese cars have accumulated a
deep technical moat in the past few years when they rushed to run hybrid and
hydrogen energy technologies. According to a report by Nikkei Asia, Japan ranks
first in the world in terms of fuel cell patents.
However, which technical route to adopt in the global new
energy transformation cannot be determined by individual car companies alone.
China, the United States, and Europe have all selected electric vehicles at the
policy level to promote the global electrification transformation.
That is to say, Japanese cars are not without new energy
vehicles, but the wrong skill points.
Japanese car companies have also tried to keep up with
the trend of electric vehicles. In 2018, Nissan launched Sylphy Pure Electric.
In 2019, Honda and Toyota launched pure electric models VE-1 (belonging to the
concept brand of GAC Honda) and iA5 (using GAC Trumpchi logo). However, these
"oil-to-electricity" models failed to make a splash, and Toyota,
Honda, and Nissan did not continue to work hard to launch more products.
On the one hand, it is the hybrid and hydrogen fuel
technology route that has mastered absolute technical advantages, and on the
other hand, it is the pure electric technology that needs to be restarted.
Are there still dramas for Japanese electric cars?
Today, new energy vehicles have become a recognized
direction in the global automotive industry. More and more consumers are
accepting pure electric vehicles, and car companies have also imposed bans on
combustion. The fastest BYD has stopped selling fuel vehicles. Driven by global
consumer trends, Japanese cars cannot escape this wave of electrification.
Since last year, Toyota, Honda, and Nissan have begun to
accelerate their transformation and have launched relevant plans and layouts.
At the end of 2021, Nissan released the Nissan Ambition
2030 (Nissan Ambition 2030) in Yokohama, Japan. It plans to invest 2 trillion
yen in the next five years to accelerate the layout of electric drive products
and technological innovation, and plans to launch 15 pure electric models by
2030. model.
Then, Toyota announced plans to invest 4 trillion yen in
the development of pure electric technologies and products in the next 10
years, to launch 30 pure electric models in 2030, and to convert the Lexus
brand to a pure electric brand. Two series of product lines, BZ and Lifestyle,
will be formed.
In April of this year, Honda also released a rather
radical electrification strategy, announcing that it will invest 5 trillion yen
in electrification and software technology in the next 10 years, and plans to
launch 30 pure electric vehicles globally by 2030. The annual output exceeds 2
million.
With such a big deal, can Japanese cars catch up with the
trend of electrification?
The answer is hard to say.
In Yu Wen's view, it is difficult but not a big problem
for Toyota, Honda, and Nissan to catch up with new car companies. However, the
key point now is that although Japanese cars have shown their all-out attitude,
their actual attitude is still very negative.
Taking Honda as an example, a large part of the
investment in the electrification strategy released by Honda is for hydrogen
fuel cell vehicles (HFCV) and hybrid vehicles. It is expected that the latter
two will account for about 60% of Honda's global sales by 2030. .
Although Nissan has clearly abandoned the development of
fuel cells, it is also conservative with regard to electric vehicles. The 2030
Vision plans that by 2030, the sales of pure electric and E-POWER models will
only account for 50% of the total.
As for Toyota, its CEO Akio Toyoda is still pouring cold
water on electric cars.
Focusing on the news that California will ban the sale of
fuel vehicles in 2035, Akio Toyoda publicly stated that it is difficult to
achieve the goal of electric vehicles like California, and not enough people
want a pure electric vehicle. At the same time, he also said that Toyota has no
plans to rush out a lineup of pure electric vehicles like some rivals, and
suggested not to restrict people from buying different types of vehicles.
"Toyota is going to take the low-cost
electrification route in China. The three-electric system is purchased from
other car companies, and it is completed by itself." Zhang Xiao, a source
close to Toyota, told Shentu that this sounds like a bad thing, but from the
cost Looks very affordable and simple.
A strong evidence is that Toyota established an electric
vehicle joint venture with BYD as early as March 2020. Toyota's new-generation
electric car, the bZ5, looks like a BYD seal on the outside and uses a blade
battery inside, which is called "OEM BYD".
Whether Toyota's "sloppy route" can be accepted
by consumers is still unknown, but the consequences of negatively treating
electrification have begun to emerge. Data from the China Association of
Automobile Manufacturers shows that from January to August this year, the
market share of Japanese cars in China has dropped to 19.5%.
On the whole, different from the firm electrification
transformation of other car companies, whether Toyota, Honda or Nissan, did not
show the determination of All in in electrification, but tried to lie in the
fuel car and hybrid car. It will take time to test whether this kind of
behavior can last long, but more and more people believe that Japanese cars are
taking the old road of Nokia.
In 2014, Microsoft announced that the acquisition of
Nokia was officially completed. Nokia CEO Jooma Ollila said at a press
conference - "We didn't do anything wrong, but I don't know why we
lost."
*The title image is from pexels . At the request of the
interviewee, Xiao Lin, Yu Wen, and Zhang Xiao are pseudonyms in the text.
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